Kamis, 20 Desember 2012

2013, Indonesia Still Optimistic




Entering 2013, should Indonesian remain be optimistic? The answer is absolutely, yes! Various institutions are very confident Indonesia's economy will grow above 6 percent next year. National Economic Committee (KEN) predicts Indonesia grew from 6.1 to 6.6 percent in the year of water snake according to Chinese tradition.  

Chairman KEN Chairul Tanjung states driving economic growth mainly from the consumption and investment sectors.
Consumption will contribute 2.6 to 2.9 percent, investment (2.7 to 2.8 percent), and exports (0.0 to 0.2 percent).

Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) also predicts 2013 economic growth at 6.3 to 6.4 percent. Indef estimates investment and consumption to be the main driver of growth.

International agencies also believe the Indonesian economy will grow. World Bank report last October stated Indonesia will grew 6.3 percent in 2013. International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates  Indonesia may grow 6.3 percent next year.

With many variations, all predictions expressed Indonesia's economy will continue to grow. However, economic challenges facing Indonesia is not easy.

Business obstacles in Indonesia have shifted. In previous years, the major problem are firstly corruption, secondly infrastructure, third corruption. Now, the bureaucracy becomes a major problem, then infrastructure and corruption. This means that eradication corruption is getting better, but bureaucracy has not improved significantly.

Minister of Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform Azwar Abubakar, says bureaucracy is still ineffective due to corruption, collusion and nepotism. Improving bureaucracy continues, such as rising salaries programs year after year for civil servants.

Unfortunately, some employees still grab with authorized manner official travel money. For 2010, based on the BPK audit, irregularities travel expenses reached Rp89, 5 billion around US$9.3 million.

For the first half of 2012, based on the results of BPK audit, irregularities travel expenses have reached a ceiling of Rp77 billion or US$8.2 million form Rp24 trillion or US$2.5 million budgeted for the trip.  

Infrastructure must develop for inviting business from abroad. Indonesian government launched Master Plan for the Acceleration of Development and Economic Development Indonesia (MP3EI) on May 27, 2011. Infrastructure of 135 projects worth more than Rp490 trillion or US$51 billion has been entering cornerstone phase.

Based on data from the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), infrastructure investment from the state budget, budget, state-owned and private shows an upward trend. In 2010, infrastructure budget reach Rp263, 9 trllion about US$27,4 billion. In 2011 investments reached Rp314, 1 trillion or US$32,8 billion.   

Infrastructure investment was set to Rp438, 1 trillion next year or around US$45, 6 billion. Bappenas requests local government could streamline the maximum budget to build infrastructure in the area.

The World Bank urged policymakers East Asia and the Pacific to continue to manage and suppress the growth of poverty. In an environment of global uncertainty, maintaining a consistent policy framework reforms will be important, especially in the face of the approaching 2014 elections in Indonesia. The election will vote for representatives and new president of Indonesia. In will be tough time for Indonesian government to stabilizing political situation. 

Selasa, 18 Desember 2012

Up and Down Indonesia-Malaysia




Relations between Indonesia and Malaysia are truly unique. Two states  have similar culture, language used is still allied, but the relationship has not always been cordial. Inter governmental relations is relatively good, but people to people-relationships sometimes up and down.

Have repeatedly, officials of both countries visit each other. In various international meetings, leaders of Indonesia and Malaysia are also often getting dialogue.

Yesterday (18/12/2012), President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono attended the 9th annual consultations between the governments of Indonesia and Malaysia in Putrajaya, Malaysia. Before conducting the annual consultations, President SBY met with Malaysian Prime Minister Mohd Najib Tun Razak.

In an intimate setting, the two leaders discussed the strengthening of bilateral relations and issues such as the protection of citizens and migrants, border issues, trade and investment.

Visiting President SBY  to Malaysia this time is  disturbed by unpleasant due to writing the former Minister of Information, Malaysia, Tan Sri Zainuddin maidins, who insulted former President, BJ Habibie.

In the article, Habibie is portrayed as selfish. Indonesian is certainly not pleased with the statement of Sri Zainuddin, as stated by President SBY after watching the movie and Ainun Habibie, on Monday afternoon (18/12) in Jakarta. President said that the statement hurt feelings and can interfere with the relationship between the two countries.

House of Representatives sent a strong protest to the Prime Minister of Malaysia. Indonesian Ambassador to Malaysia Herman Prayitno also delivered a diplomatic note to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Malaysia.
Malaysian Prime Minister Mohammed Najib Tun Razak has called Zainuddin. Furthermore, Zainuddin admitted his mistake on the article published in the newspaper Utusan Malaysia, December 10, 2012. Zainuddin also apologized to Habibie and the Indonesian people.

With apologies are expected to re-warm relations between the two nations. It still left some issues surrounding the relationship between the citizens of both countries as a matter of Indonesian workers, border disputes, issues of cultural heritages, even football supporters dispute.

Indonesia economic relationship has been close. Indonesia's exports to Malaysia in 2011 reached U.S. $ 10, 9 billion and imports touched U.S. $ 10.4 billion. Compared to previous years, the trade volume has increased.  

In ASEAN, Indonesia is the third largest trading partner for Malaysia, after Singapore and Thailand. Malaysia is the country's eighth largest investor for Indonesia. Many Malaysian companies are planting stock in some country areas.

As presented President SBY and Malaysian Prime Minister Mohammed Najib Tun Razak in a joint conference, the two countries committed to increasing cooperation in various fields.  

Senin, 17 Desember 2012

To Be Better Airport


What happens at the Soekarno-Hatta airport in Tangerang, Banten, Indonesia, very sad, there was a power failure there, Sunday (16/12). PT Angkasa Pura II which managing the airport    stated fire affected uninterruptible power supply (UPS).   

UPS burning  causes interference with the scouting system is automated, Jakarta Automated Air Traffic System (JAATS) for 15 minutes. Therefore, the number of landings and take offs at Soekarno-Hatta was restricted to prevent unwanted things.

At exactly 17:10 pm, the power supply to the scouting JAATS recover. However, due to the start-up process, it takes some time until around 18:05 pm for full operation.

There were 63 flight delayed. In details, 21 aircraft would depart from Soekarno-Hatta, 18 aircraft in flight and would land at Soekarno-Hatta Airport, two flights had to be diverted to other airports. Moreover, 22 aircraft would depart from another airport Soekarno-Hatta Airport.

There was already a formal apology from PT Angkasa Pura over the incident.  An apology is clearly not enough. Flight disruptions not only happen this one time. Power failures at Soekarno-Hatta happened several times in the past, including in August 2010, April 2012 and September 2012.

Disturbance at Soekarno-Hatta, one of the busiest airports in Asia, it is very unfortunate and alarming. Passenger traffic at the Soekarno-Hatta continues to rise. In 2006, number of passengers only 30.8 million, but by 2011 had ballooned to 51.5 million people.

The increase in the number of passengers is very reasonable, considering the favorite air transport for people with increasing social welfare.
New fleet is also growing with the increasing transportation by planes.

Central Bureau of Statistics said in 2005 there were 440,520 aircraft arrival and aircraft departure 453,177 times. In 2010 the number increased, the arrival 574.423 and departure 576.200 times.

For the number of passengers has increased dramatically. In 2005, the number of departing passengers 29.8 million people, the arrival of 24.8 million people and 1.1 million people in transit. In 2010, the passenger departures are 48.9 million, arrival 50.5 million and transit 5.7 million people.

Do not be late, the whole range of ministers and institutions should conduct a thorough evaluation aspects of the service at the airport, not just at the Soekarno-Hatta airport but also in the other. In fact, disruption of power outages also occurred at other airports.

Just for example, in May 2011, the airport Hanandjoeddin Tanjungpandan, Pacific Islands also experienced power outages, in May 2011.
Bali's Ngurah Rai airport, Bali also had experienced a power outage on 26 November 2012. If the service is reduced, the risk could be increased as well.

Immediately act. Equipment that is not worth having to be replaced. Some equipment, including at Soekarno-Hatta had exceeded the age economy. Although these tools can be used, but the risk of damage is certainly greater than the new. Of course, to replace various equipment required investment, and it is not cheap.   

We are grateful to the various problems faced by the airport handled properly without causing casualties.
But once again, act!  Do not get us to act when it is too late.

Jumat, 07 Desember 2012

Indonesia’s Fuel Dilemma




Indonesia has the big problem in handling the state budget, especially relating with the big scale of subsidized fuel spending. With cost for subsidized fuel reaching more than  Rp250 trillion or around US$23  billion, Indonesian government loose opportunity for building  more important projects,   like infrastructure, education, and housing.

As the emerging market, Indonesia has gross domestic product nearly USD1 trillion with earning per capita around US$3 thousand per year. Indonesian people have new style of life with more money for shopping and traveling then before.

More people buy cars or motorcycles thank to easily credit facilities from lender like banks and others financial institutions. The selling figures of cars, motorcycles, buses and trucks have been rising fantastically. In 2000, automotive industries sold 18,9 million unit, then risen up to 76,9 millions unit    in 2011.

The amount vehicles are consuming very much fuel (premium and diesel fuel) which receive subsidy by government.  This year (2012), people consume fuel  45, 3 million kiloliter. Next year, Indonesia will need more million kiloliter  fuel  in condition with more vehicles will be sold. Automotive industries in Indonesia have new target for breaking vehicles selling record to 1 million units a year.

Indonesia is oil producer for nearly 1 million barrel per day. However, it is not enough for covering total of domestic oil consumption. Indonesia need import crude oil from other countries and it made the country had been a net importer of energy.         

Indonesia Statistic Body said crude oil import for October this year up to US$1,073 millions. It rises 38 percent compared with last figure of US$779 million. Oil import has been negative impact for rising current account deficit to US$1, 55 billion in October.

Money for subsidized fuel should be used for building public projects like housing, transportations and constructing bridges and road. One side, Indonesia spend too much money for oil subsidized, in other hand government has lack of budget for building infrastructures.

Now day, gasoline price in Indonesia is lowest in the South Asia nations. For one liter need cost only around fifty cent US dollar. Then, gasoline smuggling is the big problem especially in border area. Government says it is difficult combating smuggler in condition with very low price of gasoline.

The government had send proposal to legislative body for rising gasoline price around 30 percent since last year, but most parties did not like the idea. The new price would save money about USD6 billion that could build road 3 thousand kilo meter or millions house for poor people.

Rising fuel price policy is very sensitive and politically not easy for representative member to decide. Indonesia had rise fuel price many times and always followed by protest of university student in several big cities.

Two years before vote pooling for legislative and presidency (2014), no parties will take a risk with launching the unpopular policy. Ruling parties in coalition: Demokrat, Golkar, PPP, PKB, PKS are not very interested to rise fuel price. They tend to choosing safety road with adding budget for subsidized fuel.

The very low fuel price is risky policy in a long term, not only with mathematical budget neither in social habit. People tend to consume fuel with inappropriate manner. One family has more than one motorcycles and people are not interested to walking even for just hundreds meters. More students without driving license are riding motorcycle, followed by hiking incidences and victims, including death cases.

Government has good transportation policies but can't be implemented easily. Mass-rapid transportation program had been launched decades ago by government with no development in real field.  Projects faced many obstacles notably land releasing.
(Rihad Wiranto-personal opinion)