Election 2014: Find The Best Candidate (SBY is Key Figur)

SBY and Prabowo

Indonesia will held presidential election next year. People are looking for the right candidates post president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). In the latest election in 2009, SBY won with nearly 70 percent vote.  He is the best for that period.

SBY has good characters; calm, expert in communication, tend to approach democratically, obey the law, and so on. In other hand, critics say SBY doesn’t have firm character although he is the soldier. Remember, no one is perfect. 

SBY has been leading this country for ten years. No chance for him to be elected again next year, by regulation. People must choose other candidates. It is not simple choice. A candidate needs 25 percent voter or 20 percent of legislative members, to follow the election. It means people have only maximum five candidates. Regulation doesn’t give chance for independent candidates in presidential election.

There are many achievements in SBY’s administration such as economic growth, political stability, and international recognition. There is not a new survey about electibility of SBY, because he has no chance for next year election. But Democratic Party’s electability tend to decline from around 17 percent last year to under ten percent today.

I still believe that SBY has fans. He has been President for ten years and only little resistance from few critics. He will still have influence next time. SBY has state man characters needed for reduce conflicts.

With the narrow space for candidacy, we will choose limited nominees. Surveys show that only few candidates have electability over ten percent personally, namely Aburizal, Megawati, Prabowo and  Jokowi. The other challengers like Hatta Rajasa, Wiranto, Dahlan Iskan, Pramono Edhie,  or Gita Wirjawan are standing on the second line.

Today, surveys indicate Jokowi is in the best position for presidential candidate. However, it is not the guarantee him to take the power due to it depend on Megawati's (PDIP Chief-Executive) decision.  If the Megawati say No for Jokowi, people will have to turn to the second shift nominees.

The party influence is very dominant to choose the candidates. For the reason, configuration of party will determine who will be chosen.  In my opinion, character of party will determine the decision.

Democrat Party will make decisive choice, whether ready to be the opposition. It depends on SBY's decision over what kind of the role that he wants to be. Today, Democrat has eleven candidates and one of them will be chosen the winner in the convention. SBY will choose the candidate who has biggest chance to face the other party’s contenders.

If the SBY will act as state man, Democrat is better entering in the power. It drives Democrat to affiliate with the coalition has big chance to win the election. It means that Democrat will not resistant to joint with PDIP although relation between SBY and Megawati is not very close. 

Probably, the election 2014 will run in two rounds. In an early election, there will be three coalitions, PDIP (Mega or Jokowi), Golkar (Aburizal), and other coalition. 

Democrat Party will be a golden boy in that situation. If Democrat gets votes 5 to 9 percent, it has strategic stand to choose the coalition. SBY's role will decide who will be the leader of the nation post 2014.

The other decisive person is Prabowo. Surveys show Prabowo's party, Gerindra, will catch vote around 7 percent. Personally, Prabowo has electability up to ten percent. He is the strong challenger for Jokowi. He can joint with Democrat and Islamic parties.

Islamic parties will gain little votes because very low popularity now. They don't have the same platform, and I can not hope they will joint together hand in hand making one decision for all. Party's interest will drive their choices. They will choose the coalition have big chance to win. They will count calculation first before affiliate the coalition. PKB (Nation Awakening Party) nominated the singer Rhoma Irama for president, but it is very hard to get votes around 20 percent as regulation required.

In the second round election, there are several scenarios but PDIP vs Golkar is the biggest probability, I think. If Jokowi will follow the election, Aburizal will be contender. In the normal situation, the Jokowi factor will drag many parties to make coalition. Other scenario is Jokowi versus Prabowo.

The real “war” has not been there. We cannot guarantee Jokowi still be strong facing attacks in the last minutes. Sometime the black horse will come in the abnormal condition. (Rihad Wiranto-Personal View)

    

Jokowi Reality or Myth

Jokowi masuk got.

Everyone talk about Jokowi now. Every where. Amazing. Only few people comment him in negative ways. Why are most people talking about him positively? Whether Jokowi is excellent or people are just telling illusion about him?

Okay, people say what Jokowi’s  real achievements. Let’s say, monorail had been canceled by complicated reasons and we ever thought the project would die forever. Today the dreams seem came true again. Jokowi has found the loosing part in the puzzle.

Jokowi is moving everywhere, seeing communities, chatting with kids and moms, and servicing societies. Fortunately, reporters follow him day and night. Jokowi get benefits from the coverage which not only by local media, but national even international news hunters.

   

We are asking again, are people impressed by Jokowi’s real achievement or amazed by abundant media covering. Researcher of Cyrus Network, Eko David Dafianto says people tend to be irrational when they are chatting about Jokowi. “They are trapped between reality and myth, “ said Eko, Saunday (15/12) quoted by media in Jakarta.

Jokowi is on the front of presidential campaign for election next year. His electability has been reaching 28.2 percent the highest level than his contenders. He needs 51 percent voters to win election. The competitors, of course, still have chances to win the racing, but they must work very hard.

Many surveys show candidates for Indonesian Number One, such Prabowo Subianto (Gerindra), Aburizal Bakrie (Golkar), Wiranto (Hanura), Megawati Soekarnoputri (PDIP), and Jusuf Kalla. There is not candidate who can reach eletability more than 15 percent according to many surveys, except Jokowi.

Old-fashioned competitor show “King style”, like speaking softly, sounding authoritative voice, standing not closely to people, and keeping the image.      

Jokowi is anomaly. He is newcomer on the national stage and having new style of leadership which caring to grassroots community.

I can say he is not handsome (I am sorry). He looks like ordinary man. He is acting like common people. He jumped in culverts to check water flowing. He preferred inaugurating officials in village than in his governor office. Jokowi’s new style leadership attracted media to cover him everywhere. 

The question is still there, whether media overlook the other presidential candidates. I think the answer is yes. Jokowi has been moving to a media darling. He got benefit from the status. However, it is not fair for public.

Journalist should open eyes to criticize the Jokowi policies to make sure implementation of the cover-both sides style that media have to adhere. Reporters tend to write off negative information of Jokowi’s activities.

Some people say Jokowi is like prophet.  Republika online wrote about how some people call Jokowi as Nabi Jokowi or Prophet Jokowi. Googling with key word “Nabi Jokowi” detected 1,9 million finding. It is too crazy judging the ordinary man as prophet. It is media challenges to protect themselves from intervention of irrationalism. News writer have to focus showing facts and data, not influenced by admiration of Jokowi.

Indonesia needs new president post SBY. Many candidates are there beyond Jokowi.  Many of them has proclaimed as the presidential candidates, namely businessman Aburizal Bakrie (Golkar), retired army General Wiranto (Hanura), singer Rhoma Irama and eleven men via Democratic Party’s Convention. 

Presidential candidates of Democratic Convention are Ali Masykur Musa, Anies Baswedan, Dahlan Iskan, Dino Patti Djalal, Endriartono Sutarto, Gita Wirjawan, Irman Gusman, Hayono Isman, Marzuki Alie, Pramono Edhie Wibowo, and Sinyo Harry Sarundajang.

Media should prioritize showing programs and actions the candidates and make balancing for all. Public hunger information about the candidates not only their proposals, but tracks record. It is the noble task for media.   Rihad Wiranto