Who Can Defeat Jokowi

Jokowi and President SBY

Jokowi (Joko Widodo) is on the best position for rally of presidential campaign now. Most surveys show Jokowi has the biggest electability.  

Why is Jokowi, the governor of Jakarta, so popular? These are the answer. Firstly, he has non-formal leadership style. This is different with other contenders who tend to show the traditional characters.

Jimly Ashiddiqie, one of expert in law, says that  people likes  to Jokowi because he is a worker. "Public prefer to actions, " says Jimy quoted media. People don't like leader with the character:  no actions talk only (NATO).

Secondly, people see Jokowi has integrity. Psychologist Hamdi Muluk said Jokowi has good image    as honest and empathy .

Third, Jokowi has good branding as leader.  He likes seeing  people, inspecting the projects in remote area, the media call it actions as "blusukan". In Javanese language,  blusukan has meaning as walking through alleys to say hello to people  or checking. The actions result positive image of Jokowi such as hard-worker profile.

Fourth, there is social epidemic that people tend to follow the majority. Media coverings help Jokowi be more popular than challengers.  

Fifth, as the Jakarta governor, Jokowi has very important position. By having the strategic place, Jokowi become the most interesting object  for media covering.

He is standing on the main stage in political arena as the number one man in Jakarta. Jokowi become the point of view on political landscape.

Although Jokowi has many positive points, it doesn't mean the governor of Jakarta can not be defeated.

All the presidential candidates are thinking about how to beat Jokowi. Who can defeat Jokowi?

The candidate must have the opposite character of Jokowi. The image of Jokowi is very strong, so the contender has to have the stronger character but with different styles.

First, as Jokowi has worker profile, the rival must be the visionary. The rival's  pointview is not only  the short view but for long period. It is like pragmatic versus ideological.

All the people likes the character of working-hard  as Jokowi did, but it is not enough. The leader must know  where the nation will go. Not just riding a car with high speed but the driver has to control the car for going to the right destination.

Jokowi is rare talking about ideological topic. We don't know where he is going to bring this nation. President is the number man in Indonesia, and all the people will follow him. Everybody must know the leader will go to somewhere.

Secondly, the rival must have the good international link. Current President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has the good ability of communication, especially in international forum. The good relation with world leader will have good impact, especially in the crisis condition. The ability for convincing the big countries will useful by supporting Indonesia, for example for investment and infrastructures. 

Jokowi hadn't have fairly the experience in international relation. That is a weakness of Jokowi, the rival should be strong on it. In this case, the rival must have good networking in international stage in order to  will take benefit over competition with Jokowi.

Third, Jokowi need support from military. Indonesian people see military is still the key of politic. Military cannot be neglected, so the combination military-civic or civic-military is ideal for president-vice president of pairs. Military-military is not good set for now. Jokowi’s partner may be a military as an ideal companion.

I can say that Jokowi is not the perfect man. He needs the right partner to follow the presidential election. Sometimes Jokowi’s fanatic followers say he can win the election whoever his partner. It is too arrogant.

Nevertheless, Jokowi is standing at the front on the racing route now. Several months before election, Jokowi’s rival are in the position wait and see. They will “attack” in the right time.  There is chance to the challengers to beat Jokowi. Of course, it is not easy  road, the Jokowi’s opponents must have  own characters. People don’t need Jokowi’s imitation, they want different style of presidential candidates. People need comparison because they will select them. (Rihad Wiranto-personal view)   

Election 2014: Find The Best Candidate (SBY is Key Figur)

SBY and Prabowo

Indonesia will held presidential election next year. People are looking for the right candidates post president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). In the latest election in 2009, SBY won with nearly 70 percent vote.  He is the best for that period.

SBY has good characters; calm, expert in communication, tend to approach democratically, obey the law, and so on. In other hand, critics say SBY doesn’t have firm character although he is the soldier. Remember, no one is perfect. 

SBY has been leading this country for ten years. No chance for him to be elected again next year, by regulation. People must choose other candidates. It is not simple choice. A candidate needs 25 percent voter or 20 percent of legislative members, to follow the election. It means people have only maximum five candidates. Regulation doesn’t give chance for independent candidates in presidential election.

There are many achievements in SBY’s administration such as economic growth, political stability, and international recognition. There is not a new survey about electibility of SBY, because he has no chance for next year election. But Democratic Party’s electability tend to decline from around 17 percent last year to under ten percent today.

I still believe that SBY has fans. He has been President for ten years and only little resistance from few critics. He will still have influence next time. SBY has state man characters needed for reduce conflicts.

With the narrow space for candidacy, we will choose limited nominees. Surveys show that only few candidates have electability over ten percent personally, namely Aburizal, Megawati, Prabowo and  Jokowi. The other challengers like Hatta Rajasa, Wiranto, Dahlan Iskan, Pramono Edhie,  or Gita Wirjawan are standing on the second line.

Today, surveys indicate Jokowi is in the best position for presidential candidate. However, it is not the guarantee him to take the power due to it depend on Megawati's (PDIP Chief-Executive) decision.  If the Megawati say No for Jokowi, people will have to turn to the second shift nominees.

The party influence is very dominant to choose the candidates. For the reason, configuration of party will determine who will be chosen.  In my opinion, character of party will determine the decision.

Democrat Party will make decisive choice, whether ready to be the opposition. It depends on SBY's decision over what kind of the role that he wants to be. Today, Democrat has eleven candidates and one of them will be chosen the winner in the convention. SBY will choose the candidate who has biggest chance to face the other party’s contenders.

If the SBY will act as state man, Democrat is better entering in the power. It drives Democrat to affiliate with the coalition has big chance to win the election. It means that Democrat will not resistant to joint with PDIP although relation between SBY and Megawati is not very close. 

Probably, the election 2014 will run in two rounds. In an early election, there will be three coalitions, PDIP (Mega or Jokowi), Golkar (Aburizal), and other coalition. 

Democrat Party will be a golden boy in that situation. If Democrat gets votes 5 to 9 percent, it has strategic stand to choose the coalition. SBY's role will decide who will be the leader of the nation post 2014.

The other decisive person is Prabowo. Surveys show Prabowo's party, Gerindra, will catch vote around 7 percent. Personally, Prabowo has electability up to ten percent. He is the strong challenger for Jokowi. He can joint with Democrat and Islamic parties.

Islamic parties will gain little votes because very low popularity now. They don't have the same platform, and I can not hope they will joint together hand in hand making one decision for all. Party's interest will drive their choices. They will choose the coalition have big chance to win. They will count calculation first before affiliate the coalition. PKB (Nation Awakening Party) nominated the singer Rhoma Irama for president, but it is very hard to get votes around 20 percent as regulation required.

In the second round election, there are several scenarios but PDIP vs Golkar is the biggest probability, I think. If Jokowi will follow the election, Aburizal will be contender. In the normal situation, the Jokowi factor will drag many parties to make coalition. Other scenario is Jokowi versus Prabowo.

The real “war” has not been there. We cannot guarantee Jokowi still be strong facing attacks in the last minutes. Sometime the black horse will come in the abnormal condition. (Rihad Wiranto-Personal View)

    

Indonesia Berhasil Jalankan Program MDGs

Terpilihnya Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono dalam Panel Tingkat Tinggi PBB untuk perumusan agenda pembangunan pengganti Tujuan Pembangunan Milenium (MDGs) merupakan bukti Indonesia semakin diperhitungkan di mata dunia.

Presiden SBY bersama Presiden Liberia Ellen Johnson Sirleaf dan Perdana Menteri Inggris David Cameron  menjadi ketua bersama panel tersebut yang beranggotakan  27 tokoh dunia dari berbagai kalangan.

Jumat lalu (1/2), para tokoh dunia ini mengadakan pertemuan ketiga yang berlangsung di Monrovia, ibukota Liberia. Pertemuan itu akan dilanjutkan Maret 2013 di Bali untuk menyusun rumusan akhir sebelum disampaikan kepada Sekjen PBB Ban Ki Moon di New York, Mei 2013. Sekitar 180 negara akan menanggapi rumusan tersebut, sebelum ditetapkan menjadi  program pengganti MDGs pasca 2015.

Sekjen PBB memilih anggota panel karena kualitas orangnya, bukan jabatannya. Karena itu anggotanya beragam, ada presiden aktif, mantan presiden, perdana menteri, mantan perdana menteri, aktivis sosial,  termasuk wartawan.

Indonesia telah berhasil menjalankan program MDGs  yang akan berakhir pada 2015.  Ada delapan tujuan MDGs. Tujuan tersebut adalah menanggulangi kemiskinan dan kelaparan; mencapai pendidikan dasar untuk semua; mendorong kesetaraan gender dan pemberdayaan perempuan; menurunkan angka kematian anak; meningkatkan kesehatan ibu; memerangi HIV/AIDS, malaria dan penyakit menular lainnya; memastikan kelestarian lingkungan hidup dan membangun kemitraan global untuk pembangunan.

Sesuai data di Bappenas, Indonesia antara lain berhasil mengurangi proporsi penduduk dengan pendapatan kurang dari US$1 per kapita perhari, rasio angka melek huruf perempuan terhadap laki-laki umur 15-24 tahun dan prevelensi dan tingkat kematian serta proporsi jumlah kasus tuberkolosis yang disembuhkan.  

Namun,   ada tantangan yang masih harus diperjuangkan. Persentase penduduk di bawah garis kemiskinan masih 12,49 persen (data Oktober 2012). Sedangkan target  MDGs adalah 7,55 persen. Masih terjadi  228 ibu meninggal per 100 ribu kelahiran hidup. Dalam MDGs sendiri, ditargetkan hanya 102 per 100 ribu kelahiran hidup.

Terkait dengan prevalensi HIV/AIDS dan penyakit menular lain, target MDGs mencanangkan penyakit menular harus segera dihentikan.  Tingkat kematian karena penyakit menular pada 2011 mencapai 27 jiwa per 100 ribu penduduk.  Perihal kelestarian lingkungan hidup, data 2011 menyebutkan 12,57 persen rumah tangga kumuh tinggal di perkotaan. Bappenas menargetkan pada 2020 hanya tinggal 6 persen.

Perjalanan MDGs telah memasuki tahun ketiga belas, dan dengan waktu dua tahun yang tersisa menjelang 2015, upaya untuk mempercepat pencapaian target  MDGs terus dilakukan.  Utusan Khusus Presiden Republik Indonesia untuk MDGs, Nila Moeloek  menyatakan  komitmen pemerintah  dalam mencapai target MDGs baik di tingkat nasional, regional maupun global tidak perlu diragukan lagi.

Itu terlihat dari peran aktif  Indonesia di tataran global terbukti dengan peran Presiden SBY dalam  Panel Tingkat Tinggi PBB membahas peogram MDGs.  Indonesia juga membentuk Komite Nasional Pasca 2015 yang beranggotakan pakar-pakar pembangunan untuk memformulasikan posisi RI serta Asia Pacific dalam Kerangka Pembangunan Pasca 2015 tersebut.

Presiden SBY  menekankan, perlunya kemitraan di dalam negeri maupun antarnegara dalam mencapai agenda pembangunan berkelanjutan. SBY mengajak seluruh pemangku kepentingan untuk membangun kemitraan yang efektif dalam rangka menyukseskan agenda pembangunan. Perlu kerja sama dan mendengarkan analisis sektor bisnis, masyarakat sipil, dan akademisi. (dimuat di Jurnas Selasa, 5 Februari 2013)